Black Friday GPU Buying Guide: November GPU Pricing Update

There's a lot to discuss in this month's GPU pricing update with some updates regarding Nvidia's upcoming GeForce 40 Super series, a look at pricing for current generation GPUs, and what sort of deals you should be looking out for during Black Friday. Plus, a few interesting observations about the used graphics card market.

There are strong rumors surrounding Nvidia's GeForce RTX 40 Super series graphics cards which are expected to be unveiled at CES in January 2024. It does seem likely that Nvidia will unveil a refreshed graphics line-up, which has some implications for prospective buyers of existing cards in the upper parts of the range. For example, should you buy an RTX 4080 right now, or wait for an RTX 4080 Super?

Nvidia GeForce RTX 40 Super Series Incoming

The expectation is that the Super series will include three graphics cards: the RTX 4080 Super, the terribly named RTX 4070 Ti Super, and the RTX 4070 Super. These are not expected to be revolutionary upgrades but minor improvements to performance alongside a potential price adjustment to better fit the current market.

You should take the following specifications with a grain of salt, but rumors are suggesting the RTX 4080 Super will feature the same AD103 GPU as the RTX 4080, with full core configuration of 80 SMs and 10240 CUDA cores. The RTX 4080 features 76 SMs, so this would lead to a 5 percent increase in core configuration. As AD103 uses a 256-bit memory interface it's unlikely we'd see any adjustments to VRAM – meaning we're probably going to see a repeat of 16GB of GDDR6X here – though clock speeds for both the core and memory are up in the air. In any case, this looks similar to the RTX 2080 Super back in the day, which was a minor spec bump over the RTX 2080.

The RTX 4070 Super is expected to do something similar: increase the core configuration of the RTX 4070 while maintaining most other aspects to the design. Rumors are suggesting an uplift from 46 to 56 SMs, sitting just below the 60 SMs of the RTX 4070 Ti. This would be a rather substantial 22 percent CUDA core increase, although we'd still be looking at 12GB of GDDR6X memory on a 192-bit bus. In our testing, the RTX 4070 Ti is ~25% faster at 4K than the RTX 4070, so the new Super model would look to close the gap there and almost end up as a slightly slower replacement for the 4070 Ti.

The most significant upgrade would come as the RTX 4070 Ti Super, a bizarrely named but much needed graphics card given the underwhelming configuration of the RTX 4070 Ti. It's being suggested the 4070 Ti Super will move to AD103, up from AD104, giving access to a 256-bit memory bus and a 16GB GDDR6X. This would be a great improvement over the 12GB VRAM config the $800 RTX 4070 Ti launched with. It would be a cut down version of AD103, currently expected at 66 SMs down from 76 on the RTX 4080, but we'd be looking at a 10% increase in CUDA cores on the 4070 Ti along with more memory and higher memory bandwidth.

The most important aspect to these products will be pricing. Nvidia has a chance to correct things here, although we don't have any great insight into what final prices are going to be. Given the relatively weak sales of the RTX 4080 and the minor expected uplift for the Super model, we'd be expecting the 4080 Super to drop closer to $1,000, allowing it to compete with the Radeon RX 7900 XTX which is typically priced around $950 and offers similar performance to the current RTX 4080 in rasterization.

The RTX 4070 Ti Super has the potential to be ~15% faster with more VRAM compared to the 4070 Ti if rumors are to be believed, so a relaunch at a similar price would make sense. The nearest competition from AMD is the Radeon RX 7900 XT, which is typically priced between $750 and $800, and offers similar overall performance (as seen in our 50 game benchmark). At $800 the 4070 Ti Super would offer a more appropriate level of VRAM in this price tier and deliver very competitive performance.

Meanwhile, for the RTX 4070 Super, this card is likely to receive a decent performance uplift relative to the 4070 and close the gap to the 4070 Ti. Nvidia has already dropped the RTX 4070 to $500 - $550 over the last few months in response to the Radeon RX 7800 XT, so it would make sense for the new model to debut at the original MSRP of the 4070: $600.

These are all guesses assessing the rumored specifications, current market positioning of other models and how Nvidia likes to price graphics cards – the final pricing is unknown and we won't find out for real until launch as these tend to change mere days before the announcements.

With this in mind, there's the question of whether you should purchase an RTX 4080 or 4070 series graphics card now, or wait for the Super models. In our opinion, unless you get an extremely good deal on one of these cards during Black Friday, we would wait. The RTX 4080 is currently selling for $1,100 and that's no different to what we've seen over the last six months, and we just wouldn't consider that model unless it was a decent amount below $1,000 to counter the potential of a $1,000 RTX 4080 Super.

The RTX 4070 Ti is very difficult to recommend as is and would very much be a wait and see what the 4070 Ti Super brings. The low amount of VRAM and high price (around $740 at the moment) just isn't tempting. Again, unless that was much lower we'd wait for January: there's a decent possibility you'll get a better product at a similar price, or will be able to grab the RTX 4070 Super or something similar at a lower price.

The GeForce RTX 4070 is probably the best of the three to grab right now but even then we wouldn't want to pay more than $500 for it considering the current market. If you see a Black Friday flash sale below $500 that would be a decent position, otherwise we don't think there will be much harm in waiting a little over a month to see what Nvidia has in store at CES 2024.

GPU Pricing: Nvidia RTX 4000

As for the rest of Nvidia's line-up, pricing is coming down for some models across Black Friday but it's important to be on the lookout for genuine deals as opposed to mere price adjustments. For example, the GeForce RTX 4060 has been listed at $290 as a Black Friday deal on Newegg, but the lowest price for this model across the 6 months prior to November has been $280 – so that's not a great deal at all. However, cards like the 4070 Ti, 4070 and 4060 Ti have all received respectable discounts and sit at their lowest prices.

We don't think many of these discounts are currently what we'd class as a great deal, based on various factors like performance, capabilities, competition and upcoming products. A great deal on the RTX 4060 would be $240, given you can currently purchase the slightly slower Radeon RX 6650 XT for just $220.

The RTX 4070 is getting pretty close though, and getting one below $500 would be decent.

The flagship GeForce RTX 4090 is experiencing a shortage due to upcoming sales restrictions into China, so these cards are priced well above MSRP if you can even find one. If you manage to snag one at MSRP that would be a solid deal.

GPU Pricing: AMD Radeon 7000

For the Radeon RX 7000 series, there are a few models currently discounted to their lowest price across the last six months, such as the Radeon RX 7900 XTX at $910. That's a good price, but it's not even a 10% discount over the MSRP from a year ago, so a great deal would have to be lower than that. Like with the RTX 4070 Ti, we also believe a suitable deal price for the 7900 XT would be $650 given impending launches and other factors.

Looking at AMD's mid-range models, the Radeon 7800 XT is not discounted at all and was only recently released, so a minimum 10% discount would be reasonable if you're looking for a deal. The Radeon RX 7700 XT is ~16% slower than the 7800 XT at 1440p, so its horrible MSRP of $450 should be more like $420 to begin with, and then a discount down to $370 on top of that is where we'd get interested relative to current 7800 XT pricing.

This is also because the Radeon RX 6800 can be had for $380, which is a similar performing GPU with more VRAM, so the Radeon 7700 XT would have to slot in below that to make any sense in the current deals market.

Then there's the Radeon RX 7600: $240 isn't a bad deal but given pricing for some RDNA2 models we'd like to see a further $10 shaved off if possible.

There's also Intel Arc GPUs which haven't been discounted compared to last month as of yet but with a small price drop (something like the A750 around $200) would offer compelling value.

GeForce RTX 3000 Pricing

There are older series graphics cards on the market as well, so let's see what is happening with the GeForce 30 series. Four of the five available models have hit new low prices in November, with the exception of the RTX 3070, but the level to which these are compelling deals is questionable.

The GeForce RTX 3050 is just $10 lower than last month which is hardly a special Black Friday deal, and it's not a very fast GPU either, coming in 20% slower than the Radeon RX 6600 which is regularly seen around $180. We couldn't recommend this model above $140, so there's still a fair bit of discounting necessary there.

The GeForce RTX 3060 has also hit a new low of $250, but with the Radeon competition we think a great deal on this card would be ~$210. The 3060 Ti is pretty close to a great deal right now, priced at just $300 – matching the price of the 6700 XT, which offers similar performance though admittedly more VRAM. It's also a little slower on average than the 4060 Ti 8GB which is currently a $330 product, so if you could grab it for $280 we think that would be great.

At $400, the GeForce RTX 3070 simply makes no sense and isn't a deal considering the lowest price over the last 6 months has been $370 with several other months around $380. But with the Radeon 6700 XT at $300 and the slightly slower 4060 Ti 8GB at $330, we couldn't justify much more than $310 as a great deal – so right now RTX 3070s are impossible to recommend. The 3070 Ti is also too expensive even though $400 is a new low price for that card.

Many of AMD's RDNA2 GPUs are very well priced at the moment so it's hard to say what qualifies as a great deal for these graphics cards. Some of them are the best value GPUs at the moment on a cost per frame basis, so in that sense they are already great value.

However some models are currently on Black Friday "sales" that aren't all that different to pricing we've seen over the last six months, so from that perspective you aren't really getting a "deal" right now. We think it's totally fair to expect a true deal to be at least 10% below the historic lowest price during a big sales period, so how much you factor in the cards already being great value we guess will come down to how you see the data and value these products.

AMD Radeon 6000 Pricing

Basically here we've looked at the Radeon RX 6600 as the baseline metric for a great value card at the moment. This GPU has consistently been at the top of our current price cost per frame charts, and if you can grab one for $180 right now er still believe that's a great deal. The 6650 XT is also looking nice at the moment priced at $220, offering similar performance to the RTX 4060 and RX 7600 at $70 and $20 less respectively. It's not that much lower than its historic lowest price but still a good buy.

Then we have the Radeon 6700 XT which around this $300 mark is a great buy right now, though the historic low for this type of GPU is $310. Still that's a competitive price up against the RTX 4060 Ti and RTX 3060 Ti. Also at a competitive price is the Radeon RX 6800, $20 lower than its historic low at Newegg based on our data – great value up against other products, that's a genuine solid deal. The Radeon RX 6950 XT also isn't horrible at $590.

Across all of new GPUs at Newegg we think it's important to be on the lookout for a real Black Friday-level discount as opposed to a small price reduction or an advertised "deal" that isn't a deal at all, there's a few of those right now. Some cards are genuinely at their historic lowest price and might hit flash sales that get them to a new lowest price, others are merely returning to a similar position to where they were at several months ago.

For high-end buyers in that $600+ price range, we'd encourage you to wait and see what we get from Nvidia's Super series before jumping in, unless you catch a really good deal. Most of what we've seen so far have been modest discounts that don't bring these GPUs to exciting new lows – but of course, we are still days away from Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend, and this article should help you determining if the listed deals are actually good deals or not.

For mid-range shoppers, we'd be looking at the GeForce RTX 4070, especially if it drops below $500, along with the Radeon RX 6800 and RX 6700 XT. A few of the other cards around this price, especially the RTX 4060 Ti series and RX 7700 XT, have been discounted compared to their MSRPs but not discounted enough to be a genuine great deal as they're some of the weakest products in the current generation.

For budget shoppers, Nvidia options are typically overpriced whether you're thinking about an RTX 4060, RTX 3060 or especially the RTX 3050 – we'd need to see some real Black Friday deals to make those worth buying, not just a $10 discount below MSRP. Instead we'd be looking at the Radeon RX 6600 and RX 6650 XT as the primary picks around that $200 mark.

Used Graphics Cards Prices

We'll also make a brief mention of the used market. Comparing this month to last, we saw a small price increase on the used market, nothing drastic and it did depend on the exact graphics card looked at, but we aren't seeing much price movement here yet in response to deals for new GPUs.

That's pretty typical during this period so if you are thinking of buying used, make sure you also check current new pricing, not just for the model you're looking at but also newer models that offer a similar level of performance. In many cases we don't think it's worth getting a 15 percent discount to grab a GPU that's been used for many years, which will be the case for a few GPU models.

Shopping Shortcuts:

• Nvidia GeForce RTX 4070 Ti on Amazon
• AMD Radeon RX 7800 XT on Amazon
• Nvidia GeForce RTX 4070 on Amazon
• AMD Radeon RX 7700 XT on Amazon
• Nvidia GeForce RTX 4060 Ti on Amazon
• AMD Radeon RX 7900 XT on Amazon
• AMD Radeon RX 7900 XTX on Amazon