Market investors are starting to bet on Nvidia's fall from AI grace

Alfonso Maruccia

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A hot potato: Nvidia's growth in the past few years has been nothing short of spectacular. The GPU manufacturer is selling a massive number of chips for accelerating AI algorithms, but some investors are now concerned about what comes next. And it's a financial bloodbath.

Nvidia could soon become the most valuable company in the world, but there's growing concern that these stellar market results cannot be sustained for much longer. A recent Reuters report highlighted that short bets against Nvidia have now reached $34 billion, almost twice the amount of bets against Apple ($19 billion) and Tesla ($18 billion).

The Santa Clara-based GPU maker recently achieved a market cap of $3.011 trillion, briefly entering the exclusive "$3 trillion" club along with Apple and Microsoft. Nvidia is expected to eventually overtake Microsoft and become the most valuable company in the world, thanks to the insatiable appetite for AI chips.

The explosive growth of generative AI, chatbots, and other machine learning algorithms has fueled Nvidia's sudden and dramatic increase in market cap. Everyone is investing in some AI-related venture or financial speculation these days, and Nvidia managed to increase its stock value by 143 percent this year alone.

As MarketWatch notes, however, investors in 2023 were already questioning how long Nvidia could maintain the higher-than-average growth levels experienced in recent years. Nvidia's results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 were up by 262 percent year-over-year, but those annual increases are expected to slow significantly in the near future.

Some industry watchers have started to sound the alarm about unregulated AI hype, predicting that the AI bubble will soon burst, bringing Nvidia, Microsoft, and many other Big Tech companies back to more realistic expectations about the future of technology. Nothing can grow exponentially forever, professor John Naughton recently told The Guardian, noting that the only planet we live on cannot be "paved with data centers."

AI technology is an environmental disaster in the making, Naughton remarked, and shareholders will soon discover that chatbots are following the same path as previous tech and market disasters like the first internet bubble. Researchers at Capital Economics have even set a date for the inevitable AI bubble burst, predicting 2026 as the year of reckoning after another brief growth period in 2025.

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So in 2 years, he would earn for himself "some" billions usd/euros before everyone sees that it was just a huge buble. Man, I love how rich company use media to control minds. I'm not anti AI but we need to control our expectations xD
 
AI is nothing short of a new tech revolution. Nvidia is at the forefront. Until serious competition is in ample supply, nothing can stop Nvidia's growth. I don't expect investors to fully understand advanced hardware.
 
Eventually all the big players will have bought their hardware costing billions of dollars and won't be updating it on even a 2-3 year cycle IMO. Once the market is saturated it will be like every other and sales will decline rapidly and approach a steady state baseline much lower than now. Additionally their are some exciting third parties entering the market with very promising ASIC's that cost far less than Nvidia's and use far less power, that all support open standards on the hardware and software levels.
 
Eventually all the big players will have bought their hardware costing billions of dollars and won't be updating it on even a 2-3 year cycle IMO. Once the market is saturated it will be like every other and sales will decline rapidly and approach a steady state baseline much lower than now. Additionally their are some exciting third parties entering the market with very promising ASIC's that cost far less than Nvidia's and use far less power, that all support open standards on the hardware and software levels.
That sounds reasonable. But I'm not sure it's "the bubble" the doomsayers like to evoke anytime the AI is mentioned...just sort of a natural course after the initial hype period.

Like it or not, AI is definitely here to stay and is already shaking things up in a major way.
 
That sounds reasonable. But I'm not sure it's "the bubble" the doomsayers like to evoke anytime the AI is mentioned...just sort of a natural course after the initial hype period.

Like it or not, AI is definitely here to stay and is already shaking things up in a major way.

I think it's less AI will go away, and more it will be limited to fields where it can make a difference rather then being this mystical tool that will solve everything.
 
"Researchers at Capital Economics have even set a date for the inevitable AI bubble burst, predicting 2026 as the year of reckoning after another brief growth period in 2025."

So basically... we are still in for a bull market for 2 years?
Yup. Nvidia has no competition and it'll take the competition (AMD, Qualcomm, Intel) at least 2 years to finally present something competitive. But we, as tech enthusiasts, already know the management style, quality of products & software, and vision of Nvidia is way ahead of these other companies.

Would anyone gamer buy an AMD GPU over an Nvidia GPU that can afford an Nvidia GPU? No. AMD is the crappy 2nd option for people on a budget. This won't suddenly change in the enterprise world because AMD is still AMD. Affording Nvidia GPUs is NOT a problem for enterprise customers, it's the supply that's the problem.
 
Yup. Nvidia has no competition and it'll take the competition (AMD, Qualcomm, Intel) at least 2 years to finally present something competitive. But we, as tech enthusiasts, already know the management style, quality of products & software, and vision of Nvidia is way ahead of these other companies.

Would anyone gamer buy an AMD GPU over an Nvidia GPU that can afford an Nvidia GPU? No. AMD is the crappy 2nd option for people on a budget. This won't suddenly change in the enterprise world because AMD is still AMD. Affording Nvidia GPUs is NOT a problem for enterprise customers, it's the supply that's the problem.
I spent a 1000€ on a 7900XTX because Nvidia was offering a 4070 ti at that pricepoint.

Besides, in a competitive business environment investing less for the same result is always a winning formula. It’s cold $$ in that world, not loyalty or fanboyism.
 
I think it's less AI will go away, and more it will be limited to fields where it can make a difference rather then being this mystical tool that will solve everything.

That's my take as well. Take VR for example, all the talk about the metaverse and what do we actually have? A new display tech for video games and not much else. AI has great potential in certain fields but it's in no way a panacea for all the worlds ills, and more importantly will have it's own drawbacks that we'll need to deal with. What ever those might be.
 
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